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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Modeling of Infections Disease and The Startup

How often have you excitedly signed up for an app, something that your friend sent along, something that was hot and was going to let you in on the ground floor? How often have you then looked back months later and realized that you've never used that service?

Successful infections diseases strike a fine balance with their hosts and the lessons they have learned through evolution can be conveniently applied to the land of Startups.

Let's took at one of the most hallowed infections diseases in history for a start point.

Stories of the Black Plague of and its effect on Europe, ushering in the Dark Ages, still haunt the popular unconscious. But the Black Plague, or bubonic plague as it is properly called when not referring to the historical event, still exists to this day, cropping up regularly all across Asia where it is endemic.

Why do we not all quake with fear at the prospect of visiting Hyderabad or Beijing? Certainly that entire terrifying plague spawning continent should be quarantined! The answer to why a vacation bumming around in China actually appeals to the average human - and not just chronic risk takers - lies in the fact that the Black Plague has evolved.

The Black Plague back in the day was extremely virulent. A good thing for certain on one hand, with the bacteria speedily colonizing their way through the new found host. Settling in is a good thing for bacteria, kind of like getting your apartment unpacked and the art up on the wall so you can really feel like you're at home. In some cases this also means the invasive agents go so far as to disguise the fact that they're there. They are after all squatters, not paying rent or anything. So they put up blackout curtains on the windows and keep the noise down. Nice neighbors really. . .

So high levels of virulence, great. Transmission is speedy, a sneeze or a cough, just a few droplets passing the bacteria from one individual to another once things have gone into their pneumatic phase [colonizing the lungs rather than just the lymph notes so spit can pass the contagion as well as blood]. Still, this isn't so bad. So what if everyone has these bacteria in them? We've got all sorts of delightful bacteria working for us in our guts and on our skin.

In the case of the bubonic plague, these bacteria upset the balance of things. They killed their host. Once the host is dead, there's now way to spread to another host. Essentially, that's the end of the great legacy: dead end. In the case of stomach bacteria, they live happily on in our guts and we never think about them til we accidentally kill them all off with broad spectrum antibiotics and realize that chorizo tacos are maybe a bit challenging without our biotic assistants.


Now this is where Startups should take notice:

Startups often come out with a bang, they are passed by word of mouth from person to person, but then rather than integrating into the existing systems of these humans, they set up their own shop. They use up resources, or maybe they just aren't making things better. So then what? Well, either they kill the host, or more truthfully, the immune system boots em out. Sure they could lie fallow there on your iPhone for a while, unused, taking up space. But eventually you'll hit the delete button.

What would help here?

Well, all that spread early on before it's obvious what the hell this new app/startup will do for a person? Calm that down a bit. Don't try to take over the world in a day. Make sure you've infected a few people very very thoroughly. They will pass your "disease" along nicely for ages. Choose wisely who you invite so that they'll be passing the word to the right folks. Make 'exclusive' actually targeted [and truly exclusive]. The folks you choose will know how to pitch it to others as well once they've been 'infected.'

This is just a cursory run through of how looking at evolved systems outside the land of technology can help us all. Not all that rigorous, but maybe it would be useful to look at your startup and decide: do you want to be cholera: deadly, highly contagious, but easily treated? Perhaps just the flu, which everyone gets eventually and with no real treatment? Maybe malaria, infecting the host forever, cropping up in fits and starts for the entire life of the host?

What are the apps you use?
Personally I've always loved tuberculosis [twitter?] and am pleased not to be forced to experience The Black Plague [facebook...].